The house at 339 104th Street sits on Carnival Bay. It is a seven-bedroom home of about 4,500 square feet with an elevator, and out back a waterfront pier carries a pool and a raised hot tub. The Inquirer reported in late May that the home was listed at $14.95 million. The report also noted that county property records show it was bought for $5.9 million in 2018.
It closed on September 10 for $15.301 million, which was $351,000 over the asking price, after 106 days on the market. Ironside Shore Wire reported that as of October 1 it was still the highest single-house sale on Seven Mile Island in 2026.
Five blocks south and across the island, the oceanfront listings had a much harder year. If you are pricing or shopping at the top of Stone Harbor this winter, that gap tells you more than any median does. In 2026 the premium went to finished homes that would be hard to replace. Oceanfront asking prices built on what the lot is worth bought sellers more time on the market. They did not buy a higher closing price.
Most Summer Sales Closed Under the Original Ask
First, the overall picture. An Ironside Shore Wire analysis of MLS data found that Stone Harbor recorded 14 residential sales totaling $69.74 million between Memorial Day and Labor Day 2026. Twelve closed below their original asking price. Two closed at it, and none went above it.
Across the whole island that summer, 47 of 55 sales finished below their original ask. Sellers had initially asked $250.04 million for those properties, and buyers paid about $238 million.
The county figures suggest a calmer market than that. The NJ REALTORS® Local Market Update for Cape May County shows single-family sellers in September 2026 received 97.0% of list price on average, with a median of 55 days on market and a median sale price of $803,500. Those figures cover the whole county, and they describe a different market. At Stone Harbor's price points, a single negotiation can move a closing by millions of dollars, and the county averages smooth all of that away.
The Ledger at the Top
These are the Stone Harbor properties above $3 million that shaped the fall market. The figures come from Ironside's reporting on MLS records. "Original ask" means the first asking price, before any cuts.
| Property | Type | Original ask | Outcome | Days on market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 339 104th Street | Bayfront, turnkey | $14.95M | Closed Sept 10 at $15.301M, about 2.3% over | 106 |
| 103 116th Street | Oceanfront | $13.499M | Closed Sept 15 at $10M, about 25.9% under | 225 |
| 107 116th Street | Rear lot behind the oceanfront | $6.999M | Closed Sept 15 at $6M, about 14.3% under | 224 |
| 10 92nd Street | Townhouse | $4.999M | Closed in September at $3.13M, 37.4% under | 528 |
| 1 106th Street | Oceanfront | $15.495M | Listing expired Oct 1 with no recorded contract | 167 |
| 2 111th Street | New oceanfront | $19M | Listed Aug 17; reported at $19M in early October | n/a |
The price per square foot adds a second layer. The buyer at 339 104th Street paid about $3,408 per square foot. The oceanfront home at 103 116th Street sold for $3,246 per square foot, and the house behind it brought $2,899. This year, finished square footage on the bay sold for more per foot than square footage on the beach.
What the Oceanfront Listings Were Really Selling
Read the marketing for these listings and a pattern shows up. Each oceanfront listing was asking buyers to pay for the land first.
Ironside reported that the listing for 103 116th Street presented the 60-by-110-foot lot, plus a 20-foot oceanfront easement, as a possible site for a new custom home of more than 3,600 square feet. The listing for 1 106th Street gave buyers two choices at $15.495 million. They could move into the 1997 house or build a raised replacement on its 75-by-110-foot lot. Neither option produced a contract before the listing expired.
A seller who asks a buyer to price in a rebuild is also asking that buyer to price in the cost, the permits and the wait. The bay home asked for none of that. The Inquirer described 339 104th Street and its neighbor at 335 104th Street as turnkey properties sharing 150 feet of contiguous bay frontage. Finished, lived-in bayfront with a pier was the scarce product in 2026. An oceanfront lot carrying a house the buyer might take down was a different and slower sale.
The $19 million listing at 2 111th Street is the clearest test of how far an oceanfront ask can stretch. NJ.com reported that the new house of roughly 3,100 square feet replaced a 1950s cottage of about 1,200 square feet. That cottage sold in 2023 for $10 million, a record at $8,163 per square foot. Construction finished in July, and the home went on the market August 17. The pitch rests on what is next door. The lot sits where First Avenue dead-ends at Villa Maria by the Sea, the Sisters, Servants of the Immaculate Heart of Mary's retreat, with the Stone Harbor Bird Sanctuary beyond it.
That neighbor has changed. New Jersey Monthly reported that the Sisters' 1930s retreat house was torn down and a new year-round retreat opened on 111th Street and Second Avenue in April 2023. Part of the land was sold for homes. In 2023, NJ.com reported that the Sisters owned 13 lots there and were selling them. By October 2024, the Philadelphia Business Journal reported that eight of the Nuns' Beach lots had sold for $37 million and that new homes were going up. At the south end, "rare oceanfront" has had more supply over the past three years than the phrase suggests.
Time on Market Is Where Buyers Get Their Leverage
The table also shows a second pattern. The longer a listing sat, the bigger the gap between its first ask and its final price. The bayfront home closed above ask at 106 days. The oceanfront pair at 116th Street gave up a combined $4.498 million, or 21.9%, after about 225 days. The townhouse at 10 92nd Street gave up $1.869 million after 528 days.
Cash adds to that leverage. Both 116th Street properties closed in cash, on the same day, under separate LLCs. In Avalon, Ironside reported that cash accounted for 84% of the town's $61.1 million in August sales. A cash buyer has no appraisal to worry about and no lender deadline. That buyer can watch a listing sit through a season and make an offer when the seller is ready to hear it.
Sellers at the top have started adjusting. Avalon's 5499 Dune Drive cut its ask by $1 million on September 30, to $22.95 million. Its listing agent said the change was made "to reflect where the market is and to invite real conversations" heading into the off-season, according to Ironside.
The Year So Far, and What Carries Into Winter
None of this means Stone Harbor is soft. Through October 28, 2026, Ironside counted 49 Stone Harbor residential closings worth $208.9 million. The median sale price was $3.7 million, compared with $3.23 million in Avalon across 116 sales. Island-wide, 36 properties asking nearly $152 million in total were under contract, and ten of them, asking a combined $60.7 million, are scheduled to close in 2027. In September alone, Stone Harbor recorded 16 closings worth $73.1 million.
In 2026, buyers at the top of the market set the terms on most deals, and finished homes that were hard to replace were the exception. For the high end this winter, I take these practical points from that:
- For sellers of finished bay or bayfront homes: 339 104th Street shows that a turnkey home with real water frontage and a pier can still draw an offer over ask. Condition and readiness are what that buyer paid for.
- For sellers whose value sits mostly in the lot: Pricing on what the land would support after a rebuild asks the buyer to carry the cost and the timeline. This year, that gap showed up as months on the market and six- or seven-figure cuts.
- For buyers: Days on market and the original ask are both public. A listing that has sat through a full season is in a different position than it was in spring, and 2026's closings show that clearly.
- For anyone using the 2018 purchase as a reference point: The Carnival Bay home went from a $5.9 million purchase in 2018 to $15.301 million in 2026. That gives a sense of how far values have moved since the year Stone Harbor's current assessments are based on.
If you own a Stone Harbor home on the bay or the beach and want to know how the 2026 closings apply to your property, or you are a buyer weighing a listing that has sat since spring, Joseph Butler can go through the comparable sales on your block with you, using actual closing prices and days on market. Let's connect.
